The global economy continues to witness resilience, supported by easing inflation, improved supply conditions and labour market strength. While an economic normalisation is underway, growth remains stagnant and below potential on the back of a still-high interest rate environment and more scrutinous businesses and consumers. The global outlook is also subject to significant downside risks, particularly geopolitical risks that could result in elevated commodity prices and supply disruptions.
This report comes in PPT.
The global short-term economic prospects continue to improve, driven by resilient growth in employment and incomes. Global real GDP growth is expected to reach 2.9% in 2024, slightly down from 3.1% in 2023 and remaining below the pre-pandemic levels. The slowdown is primarily due to the lagging effect of high interest rates and ongoing high costs for businesses and consumers, while downside risks remain dominant amid rising geopolitical tensions. Economic conditions normalise gradually, however, with further easing of inflation and loosening monetary policy expected later in 2024, supporting a steady growth momentum that will carry into 2025, when global growth is projected to reach 3.1%.
The US economy continues to defy expectations and showed resilience in Q1 2024, leading to a further upgrade in its real GDP growth forecast to 2.1% in 2024. Nevertheless, ongoing challenges, including elevated interest rates, persistent inflation and high consumer debts will weigh on consumer spending and growth in the US. In the Eurozone, real GDP growth is expected to remain low at 0.7% in 2024, before it increases to 1.5% in 2025 amid easing inflation and expected rate cuts. Growth forecast for China is revised upward to 4.7% in 2024 on the back of stronger investments. However, a lingering real estate crisis and subdued private consumption will continue to restrain economic expansion in the world’s second largest economy.
Emerging and developing economies will outperform advanced economies, with 2024 real GDP growth being estimated at 4.0% compared to 1.4% in advanced economies. Emerging Asian countries such as India, Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines are expected to witness some of the fastest growth rates globally, reflecting their continuing strength in domestic consumption and in attracting investments. Meanwhile, growth will remain subdued in some Latin American major emerging markets including Mexico and Brazil, on the back of softening domestic and external demands, fiscal consolidation and still-tight monetary policy.
If you purchase a report that is updated in the next 60 days, we will send you the new edition and data extraction Free!